The 2025-2034 RUPTL plans 10.3 GW of gas-fired power plants, increasing gas demand by 60% by 2034. At the same time, Indonesia's domestic gas reserves are falling by 65.1% to 35.30 TCF, with an estimated lifespan of only 14 years. Using a juridical-empirical approach, this study identifies structural contradictions in gas expansion. In terms of availability, aging power plants (up to 40 years) and limited reserves raise stranded asset risks. Regarding accessibility, infrastructure disparities across regions remain significant. For affordability, LNG import volatility could impose costs of up to IDR 155.8 trillion by 2034. From a sustainability perspective, CO2 and methane emissions are expected to rise. Legally, this systemic vulnerability may trigger an energy emergency under Presidential Regulation No. 41/2016. Under Law No. 30/2007, energy policy should prioritize diversification toward renewables rather than expanding fossil-based infrastructure that increases long-term energy security risks.
In May 2025, the government issued the Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) 2025-2039, targeting an additional 69.5 GW of power generation capacity to support national economic growth and strengthen the electricity system. Of this total capacity, renewable energy is planned to contribute 42.6 GW, energy storage systems 10.3 GW, and fossil-based power plants 16.6 GW, consisting of 6.3 GW of coal-fired power plants and 10.3 GW of gas-fired power plants (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, 2025). This composition indicates that although the energy transition is being directed toward renewables, coal and gas are still positioned as key pillars of the national electricity system in the coming decades.
Natural gas, in various policy documents, is often promoted as a transition fuel due to its lower emission intensity compared to coal. However, several studies indicate that this claim does not fully reflect the overall environmental impact of the gas industry. Brauers et al. (2021) emphasize that natural gas still produces carbon dioxide emissions during combustion as well as methane emissions throughout its production, distribution, and utilization chain. Methane has a significantly higher global warming potential than carbon dioxide in the short term, while leakage rates in natural gas systems can range from 2.3% to 17%, depending on infrastructure characteristics and measurement methods. In addition, large-scale gas infrastructure development may create infrastructure lock-in effects and hinder the acceleration of low-carbon energy deployment.
Beyond environmental issues, the expansion of gas-fired power capacity raises strategic concerns regarding national energy resilience and security. Increasing dependence on gas will require sustained long-term supply, both from domestic production and LNG imports. At the same time, several domestic gas fields are experiencing natural decline. Data shows that Indonesia's proven natural gas reserves decreased from 101.22 TCF in 2016 to 35.30 TCF in 2023, a decline of around 65.1% within seven years (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, 2024). This condition potentially increases Indonesia's reliance on the international LNG market, which is vulnerable to price volatility, supply chain disruptions, and global geopolitical dynamics.
The post Russia-Ukraine conflict energy crisis in 2022 demonstrated that gas supply is influenced not only by technical and economic factors but is also highly sensitive to international geopolitical developments. The surge in global LNG prices and competition for LNG supplies between Asian and European countries highlights how gas dependence can become a source of strategic vulnerability for states (International Energy Agency [IEA], 2023). For Indonesia, this risk becomes increasingly relevant when the expansion of gas-fired capacity is not accompanied by long-term domestic supply security.
From a legal perspective, this issue is not merely a technical energy sector concern but is also linked to the state's obligation to ensure energy availability for the public as mandated by Article 33 of the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia, as well as energy and electricity regulations. However, most existing studies on gas power development in Indonesia focus on economic, investment, and emission reduction aspects, while analyses that connect gas expansion with energy security risks and potential energy emergency conditions remain relatively limited.
Based on this background, this study aims to analyze how increasing dependence on gas in Indonesia's electricity sector may create long-term vulnerabilities in energy security and risks of energy emergency conditions. It also examines the extent to which Indonesia's legal energy framework is capable of anticipating these risks amid growing global competition over gas resources and international geopolitical uncertainty.
Energy Security Theory: The concept of energy security has evolved from a traditional approach focused on the availability of energy supply toward a multidimensional framework encompassing economic, environmental, governance, and geopolitical aspects. According to Cherp and Jewell (2011), energy security is the ability of an energy system to ensure a continuous and protected energy supply against various risks that may disrupt a country's social, economic, and political functions. In a modern context, energy security is not only understood as security of supply, but also includes a state's capacity to manage vulnerabilities related to price volatility, geopolitical conflicts, climate change, and disruptions in global energy supply chains.
Energy Resilience Theory: The development of energy literature shows that energy security cannot be separated from the concept of energy resilience. Chester (2010) defines energy resilience as the ability of an energy system to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and recover from various internal and external disruptions. Cherp and Jewell (2011) explain that a resilient energy system must be able to maintain its core functions despite pressures such as supply crises, natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts, and changes in global energy markets.
Sustainable Development Theory: The concept of sustainable development was introduced by the World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) in the report Our Common Future. This theory emphasizes that development should meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. In the energy sector, sustainable development requires a balance between economic growth, equitable access to energy, and environmental protection.
Legal Theory of State Obligation: From a public law perspective, the state has a constitutional obligation to ensure the availability of energy for the public. This obligation is derived from Article 33 of the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia, which mandates state control over sectors of production that are important to the state and that affect the livelihood of the people.
| No | Researcher and Year | Research Title | Method | Research Result | Similarities with this Research | Differences with this Research |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brauers et al. (2021) | Systematic literature review | Natural gas creates methane emissions, infrastructure lock-in, and may hinder long-term decarbonization. | Critically evaluates natural gas as a transition fuel. | Does not discuss energy security or legal consequences of gas dependency. | |
| 2 | International Energy Agency (2022, 2023) |
|
Global energy market analysis | LNG markets are increasingly affected by geopolitical conflicts, supply disruptions, and price volatility. | Highlights the geopolitical risks of gas dependence. | Does not specifically examine Indonesia's legal preparedness for energy crises. |
| 3 | Shalati (2025) – CERAH |
|
Policy analysis and emissions assessment | Expansion of 10.3 GW gas-fired power plants may generate 10–11 million tons CO₂ annually, create fiscal burdens, and slow decarbonization. | Examines the same RUPTL and gas expansion policy. | Focuses primarily on climate and fiscal impacts, not on energy security, emergency governance, or legal resilience. |
| Dimension | Normative Construction under Government Regulation No. 40 of 2025 |
|---|---|
| Availability | Ensuring adequate energy supply, national energy reserves, and reducing import dependence (Articles 6, 28). |
| Accessibility | Equitable access to energy, including remote areas and small islands (Article 6 letter h; Article 7 letter c). |
| Affordability | Efficiency, productivity, and affordability of energy prices (Articles 2, 6, 65). |
| Sustainability | Energy transition, conservation, and decarbonization (Articles 2, 31, 33–34). |
The juridical approach in this study is conducted through an analysis of laws and regulations in the energy and electricity sectors, including Law No. 30 of 2007 on Energy, Law No. 30 of 2009 on Electricity, and Government Regulation No. 40 of 2025 on National Energy Policy (Indonesia, 2007; Indonesia, 2009; Indonesia, 2025). The analysis also covers the concepts of energy crisis, energy emergency, and the state's obligation to ensure energy supply security as part of public service and national interest.
The empirical approach is carried out through document analysis of the National Electricity General Plan (RUKN), the Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL), data on gas production and consumption, LNG demand projections, as well as global gas price dynamics and geopolitical factors affecting energy supply chains (PLN, 2025; International Energy Agency, 2024).
Primary data are derived from regulations and policy documents, while secondary data are obtained from reports of international organizations, academic publications, and previous studies. All data are analyzed qualitatively using an energy security framework and risk analysis to assess the vulnerability of the electricity system due to increasing dependence on gas (Cherp & Jewell, 2014; Winzer, 2012).
The discourse on energy security intensified following the 1973-1974 oil crisis caused by the OPEC embargo. Since then, geopolitical factors have become a key determinant of global energy security, as again demonstrated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. In the Indonesian context, this issue has become increasingly relevant with the growing role of gas in the national energy mix. Although Indonesia remains a net LNG exporter, rising domestic demand has created an energy security paradox, where part of export supply must be redirected to domestic needs.
The expansion of 10.3 GW of gas-fired power plants under the 2025-2034 RUPTL faces serious challenges to national energy resilience, particularly in terms of availability, affordability, and sustainability. Historically, Indonesia's gas reserves declined from 101.22 TCF (2016) to 35.30 TCF (2023), representing a reduction of approximately 65.1%. At current production ratios, reserves are projected to last only until around 2037, far shorter than the 40-year economic lifespan of gas power plants, thereby creating stranded asset risks within the national electricity system.
This study produces the following conclusions: 1) The expansion of gas-fired power plants does not strengthen energy resilience, but instead creates a new dependence on volatile and geopolitically vulnerable LNG imports. 2) Normatively, the system has not yet reached crisis or emergency status; however, materially it has entered a structural pre-crisis phase. Thus, gas policy has the potential to become an escalation pathway toward an energy crisis that undermines the legal objective of energy law as a guarantee of public safety.