Analysis of Factors Affecting the Volume of Rice Imports in Indonesia

Ahwan Nur Agustin; Lucky Rachmawati

doi:10.55927/fjmr.v5i7.103

Authors

Ahwan Nur Agustin Universitas Negeri Surabaya
Lucky Rachmawati Universitas Negeri Surabaya

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55927/fjmr.v5i7.103

Keywords:

Rice Imports, Rice Prices, Rice Production, Exchange Rates, ARDL

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the world's largest rice producers, yet it remains dependent on rice imports to stabilize domestic supply and prices. This study analyzes the effects of local prices, international prices, national production, and the rupiah exchange rate on rice imports for 1993–2025 using the ARDL method. Long-run results show that international prices and the exchange rate have a significant positive effect on imports, while domestic production has a negative effect. Local prices have no significant long-run effect. In the short run, local prices are positive, domestic production negative, while the exchange rate and international prices are significant at certain lags. These findings confirm that Indonesia's rice imports are influenced by domestic and external factors.

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